Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the country and triggered disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in universities but very few politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two essays that strive for objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over identity markers, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed here and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has has important lessons to acquire from the opposing positions."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
